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No one knows exactly how high CDS rates would go if we pierced the debt ceiling, but it’s a reasonable assumption that they would go higher than they are now, even if (as is almost certain) they never pay out a penny. The US CDS market is a speculative, greater-fool market: the trick is to buy at a low level, and then sell at a higher level. A bit like bitcoins, really. If you think that the debt ceiling is going to be hit, then it makes sense to buy CDS today, just because spreads are going up rather than down. The only trick then will be trying to time the perfect moment to sell.
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